♪♪♪ male announcer: Funding for the Hinckley Report is made possible in part by the Cleone Peterson Eccles Endowment Fund.

Jason Perry: Tonight on "The Hinckley Report," as the nation marks the one year milestone of the first Americans receiving their covid vaccines, local parents weigh in on vaccinating their children.

As state leaders continue to shuffle positions, legislators work to finalize their 2022 priorities.

And new polling sheds light on how Utahns view key issues that will impact our state's future.

♪♪♪ CC BY ABERDEEN CAPTIONING 1-800-688-6621 WWW.ABERCAP.COM Jason Perry: Good evening and welcome to "The Hinckley Report."

I'm Jason Perry, Director of the Hinckley Institute of Politics.

Covering the week, we have Ben Winslow, reporter with Fox 13 news; Sonja Hutson, reporter with KUER; and Rod Arquette, host of the Rod Arquette Show on KNRS.

Glad to have you with us this evening as we talk about big events in the state, with our legislature, but I want to start with a kind of an anniversary of sorts, Ben, with you.

It's been one year since the first vaccine was given to people here in the United States in particular, and I Wanna talk about how we're doing in Utah in comparison with the rest of the country.

About 72% of the population of the United States is vaccinated, we're about 65% here in the state of Utah.

Those things are going up a little more, talk about that a little bit with people you're interviewing, because you would think in a state like ours, given the push from our leaders, might be a little closer that national average.

Ben Winslow: Yeah, it's slow going, there's still-- it's just a creeping up, it's still happening.

You know, people are starting to--are still continuing to do it, but there's still a lot of hesitancy that we see from people just for various reasons.

People have all sorts of excuses or reasons that they feel like they need to--that they don't want to get vaccinated at this point or they eventually get around to doing it, and that's what we're seeing a lot of.

Jason Perry: Yeah, Sonja, to this point, and I want to get to one of those of which I'm hearing, there was there was a moment of time where it was sort of a political question.

Sonja Hutson: I think it still is a political question.

You can--I mean the numbers spell that out for ya, right?

There is, you know, bluer states tend to have much higher vaccination rates than red states, and if you look at polling numbers, there's a big disparity when it comes to party in terms of who is ready and willing and excited to get vaccinated.

Rod Arquette: You know, it's interesting, you have the governor of Colorado this week basically say covid is over.

You know, we've got the vaccines, if you want to get one, get a vaccine, if you don't wanna, you're on your own type of thing.

I think the general feeling is that the public is starting to say we've dealt with this for two years now, you know, those people who want to get a vaccine have already been vaccinated, convincing those who aren't going to get it is going to be very, very hard, and the numbers I've seen lately, only 68% of independents have been vaccinated, 68% of people with college degrees have been vaccinated, 60% of people--of blacks have been vaccinated, so if you're going to move that number any more, it's gonna be a challenge.

I think people have pretty well settled on what they're going to do, and to change it, I don't know if you can.

It's gonna be a real challenge now.

Ben Winslow: And our governor's taken a similar approach in his news conference yesterday, saying look, there's masking available, there are vaccines, you have the ability to go do this right now, you know, essentially saying, look, there's the ways to do this, the door is there, you can walk through it.

Sonja Hutson: I wonder, though, because we did see a little bit of an uptick when delta hit, right?

People were--this is a really highly contagious variant, they were really worried, and I wonder as we get more and more cases of the omicron variant, which looks really bad at this point.

You know, it's much more able to evade immunity, it's much more contagious than delta.

If we start to see some really, really big impacts from that, I wonder if that would convince some people to get vaccinated.

Rod Arquette: You say contagious, but it's also less severe is what we're hearing, so will people say, okay, we're gonna get it, but it's not as severe as far as--at least as far as we know right now, those people who've been vaccinated, those people who've already have covid--have had covid are saying I've been vaccinated, I've had covid, you know, I'm going to deal with it.

Sonja Hutson: Yeah, I've seen, it may be less severe, they're still--it's still early, they're tryin' to figure out-- there's some experts who like the data out of South Africa suggests it might be less severe, but there are also experts who say that might be a little bit misleading because there are so many people in that country that have been previously infected.

Rod Arquette: And too early to tell still.

And too early to tell, they don't know for sure.

Jason Perry: Well, all this conversation really gets to one interesting point that the governor addressed in his meeting yesterday.

It was about mandates, you know, so maybe how much more effort can we put forward, and you know, what's going to happen?

So Ben, he talked about that a little bit, 'cause the question I really have is--'cause he addressed it a little bit--if a mandate's put in place, or should it be, and if so who really is the right person or group to mandate.

Ben Winslow: Well, there's that actually ways of looking at this, because of course, the state is suing the Biden administration over its many mandates, and the fifth circuit court has so far been siding with the states that are suing in a lot of its rulings.

But then there's also the legislature that is looking at the idea, at least one representative-- Representative Spendlove-- is looking at the idea of maybe even putting even more limits on those vaccine mandates and whether or not government can issue any kind of a mandate.

The governor signaled that he feels like what they passed previously, these exemptions that they've given when it comes to certain types of mandates is satisfactory.

That bill is still in the works, even Representative Spendlove says I'm still not sure what it's gonna look like at the end, but there's definitely a philosophical disagreement with the idea of mandates, forcing people to do it.

Rod Arquette: Jason, I just wanted to--you know, who's going to issue the mandates?

There are a lot of people and especially in this state say me, personally, I'm going to mandate if I'm going to get a vaccine.

Government's not going to tell me what to do, and they aren't going to do it.

It's an individual choice to a lot of people.

Jason Perry: Well, to Rod's point, Sonja, because we asked a question in recent poll that the University of Utah did through the Hinckley Institute and The Desert News, we asked about a couple of these mandates, whether Utahns support it.

We asked specifically for companies that have 100-plus employees, do you support that mandate.

Interestingly enough, 58% of Utah's said absolutely no, that they are opposed to that.

Very low number of people didn't know, 37% supported it.

Does that kind of back up Rod's claim right there where Utahns really are on this, it's personal, not someone else directing?

Sonja Hutson: Yeah, absolutely, I think that a lot of those poll numbers don't lie.

A lot of people do view it as an individual choice.

They don't like, you know, big government coming in and telling them what to do with their own medical decisions.

Jason Perry: So, one thing I thought was interesting the governor said and some questions both of you were there asking him about was Congress maybe has the power to do some things, but one thing he was clear about the president doesn't, is that right?

Ben Winslow: Which is kind of the basis for the lawsuits or the rationale for the litigation that the Utah Attorney General is involved in why the governor's supporting it.

Rod Arquette: And the courts have basically said that so far, that is not--so far.

We'll see where it goes.

Ben Winslow: It looks like it may go to the US Supreme Court, and we--I think most people expected that's where it's gonna eventually go to, and people are saying, well, there was this case years ago in Massachusetts that would give the authority to the court to say yes, mandates are allowed.

We'll have to see where it goes.

Jason Perry: I'm curious, Rod, what you think about this bill that Ben was talking about with Robert Spendlove, and it is, but it's not just the covid vaccines, it's any vaccine is what he's talking about, and he gave this example that under the current law government could go door to door, this was his example, and they could say are you vaccinated or not?

And this is one of the things he's concerned about.

Is that ringing in the minds and hearts of Utahns, that concern?

Rod Arquette: Yeah, it may be a bit of a concern, but I heard someone say--I think it was this morning--if you think about these mandates, OSHA does not have a police force, so who's going to enforce these mandates if in fact-- Who's gonna be responsible for enforcing all these mandates?

And I think it goes back to the individual choice.

That's what I think Spendlove is kinda leading to.

Ben Winslow: And it should be pointed out, there is a caveat Representative Spendlove told me that this would not apply to schools which do have their own very robust requirements with exceptions.

Rod Arquette: I think the governor said that yesterday, didn't he?

Leave it up to the individual schools.

Jason Perry: He did indeed, but since we're talkin' about the schools, Sonja, just one last point on this, because we we asked Utahns that have children whether or not they're going to get their kids vaccinated, and interesting it was 51% of families with children said that their child is vaccinated or will be as soon as they are eligible.

So that's just a just barely over half.

Thoughts about why we're still sitting at that number, because that hasn't really changed through this entire process since children are able to be vaccinated.

Sonja Hutson: Yeah, I mean, I think part of it is probably that kids tend to have less severe cases of covid, so it doesn't feel like such a severe threat to--you know, their kids versus themselves as parents, perhaps, but that also doesn't mean that kids are immune.

I mean, just this week, we had a child die from covid, so it doesn't mean that they're, you know, totally free from from, you know, really severe outcomes of this disease.

But I think that might be behind why that number is a little lower.

Jason Perry: I know a lot of people are still watching, and we asked in our poll, too, when do Utahns think that we're gonna get back to normal, and you know, when we start asking this question, it was a few months, maybe by the end of the year.

Ben, 42% of Utahns said it's several years, it's no time soon when things get back to normal.

Ben Winslow: I mean, that is a really telling number, and you do raise--it raises just an overall question of are we ever gonna get back to normal, like ever?

Yeah, what does it mean?

There have been so many things that have changed just as a result of the pandemic, personal health behaviors, remote working even, all just upheaval, things like that just as a result of the pandemic.

It just makes you wonder is this the new normal?

Rod Arquette: And everybody is wondering that, the New York Times editorialized, the editorial board of the New York Times last week said we have covid, we've got--life goes on, and it's time to pick up and carry on.

Let's back off from the fear, the hysteria, and let's move on as best we possibly can.

Because of what Ben has mentioned, we've got the vaccines, the treatment is better, it's time to move on, and I think--yeah people--but a lot of Americans are saying we are ready to move on.

I think in this state they were ready to move on fairly early on this.

Jason Perry: Sonja, how has this changed kind of your business also?

'Cause I'm just so curious if there is some permanent things you're seeing that normal is is gonna be redefined here.

Sonja Hutson: Yeah, I mean, I think there's two parts of getting back to normal that's kinda wrapped up in that question.

One is when does covid stop being a threat?

And when should we stop worrying about it?

Secondly, all of the things that have changed in our world because of covid, remote work, flexibility, you know, all that stuff, I don't know if that will ever go back to normal, and there are probably people on both sides who would say that it's either good or bad thing, but yeah, to Ben's point, I don't think that that is ever going to change, but I think there is still an open question of, all right, when is covid no longer gonna be a huge threat, and I think that, you know, this--the emergence of this new variant, the omicron variant, really backs up what public health experts have been saying for many months now, which is we're never gonna get out of this.

This will never stop being a big threat unless we vaccinate the rest of the world, because the more that covid circulates in other parts of the world, the more opportunities there are to--for more variants to develop.

Rod Arquette: I thought it was really interesting, this week a couple of the CEOs of the airline industry were asked about mask, and they said, you know, as far as the masks are concerned on flights, we have the best filtrations on our airplanes than anything, and we don't know if the masks are necessary anymore, and that was the head of two of the major airlines in the country.

Jason Perry: Interesting.

I want to switch gears for a moment, too, because I like looking to our next election cycle.

Ben, I know this is your favorite time, one of the big question-- Sonja Hutson: Is it really, though?

We all, like, tensed up a little bit as you said that.

Jason Perry: I did notice that.

One of the unknowns that we've been thinking about here as a state is, is this independent candidate for our Senate race.

Senator Mike Lee is up for election and Evan McMullin has entered.

People in the state may remember him, he was able to get 21% in that last presidential election where he ran, and we're wondering how he's going to fare in this next election cycle, so we asked.

So it's really just a popularity, or do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Evan McMullin, and kinda consistent with what we saw last time was interesting, 62% of Utahns still don't know who he is, 62%, that's a pretty high number.

Ben Winslow: That's a big challenge for his campaign.

[Rod Arquette laughing] That's a bad sign.

Jason Perry: So, 22% favorable, 16% unfavorable, what do you make of that?

I mean, would you have expected given a little bit of history there that?

Ben Winslow: I would have expected it to be a little higher, but it also just shows that to unseat the current incumbent, you have a lot of work to do, and you have to get out there and you have to spend and you have to be on TV and on the radio and just everywhere to get your face out there.

And you know, it kinda shows just what it's like to go up against an incumbent who is very entrenched and very popular amongst his own party.

Jason Perry: Well, Rod, I know you're a student of of these races in history, are we getting closer to a time when and independent candidate can make a serious go at one of these races against an incumbent like a Senator Mike Lee.

Rod Arquette: It is very, very, very hard for an independent, especially like Ben said, with--you know, Mike Lee, you go to the convention Mike is a rock star.

I mean, it is almost like a rock concert.

And you've got to find other people in the state who are willing to go.

Now, it was interesting and, you know, that Ben McAdams, former congressman, former mayor, brought up the other--you know--last week, maybe the Democrats shouldn't run anybody, and everybody get behind Evan McMullin.

I mean, that was an interesting statement to make, and is he conceding that the Democrats haven't got anybody who can go against Mike and maybe McMillin is the best one we can-- McMullin, I'm sorry.

Sonja Hutson: Yeah, I mean, what you're gonna have if you have-- say Mike Lee wins the primary, if you have also Evan McMullin and a Democrat running, you're gonna split the we don't like Mike Lee vote between McMullin and the Democrat, and so you know, that might be a decent strategy.

I don't know how well that would be for the Democratic party's brand in the state, but if your goal is to unseat Mike Lee, it might not be a horrible strategy.

Ben Winslow: But I will point out one thing, convention voters--to your point, Rod-- convention voters aren't necessarily Utah voters overall.

You know, just because one person's popular at a convention doesn't necessarily mean it translates to winning an election, and we've seen that many, many primaries.

Rod Arquette: The other challenge for independent is money and structure, and if you're a party candidacy, you've got the party brass and the mechanism behind you, if you're an independent, you're on your own, and that's a challenge.

Jason Perry: To put it into a just a little more perspective also, 'cause we break down the kind of the cross tabs how the parties approve, and for Senator Mike Lee--and I think this goes to your point, Sonja, maybe comment on this, too--among Republicans, people who identify as Republicans and say they're going to vote, Mike Lee is sitting at 61% of the people who are going to the convention that people are likely to show up and vote.

Sonja Hutson: Yeah, I mean that doesn't surprise me.

I was thinking about, you know, comparing this election to when McMullin ran for president as an independent candidate in 2016.

I think that Donald Trump when he was running then was a much more controversial figure in Utah than Mike Lee is now.

Mike Lee is still controversial.

I don't want to say that everyone loves him, 'cause that's not true, but it was probably easier to pull Republicans over to an independent candidate side because Donald Trump was just so much more controversial in the state than Mike Lee is.

Jason Perry: It's so interesting.

I just have to ask is follow, too, 'cause Rod, you would know, because the Trump factor in that race may be something to consider.

Is he going to be back on the ballot.

I mean, you go ahead and prognosticate right now.

Rod Arquette: Is Trump back?

I don't know.

I mean, three years is a long way.

I mean, it's hard to say.

He keeps on dropping hints that he's very interested, but that's Trump's way.

He loves being in the spotlight, and that's what--he's not going to do any-- He'll just let everybody speculate about it because he doesn't have to say anything.

He can drop hints and thats what--little bread crumbs along the way for people.

That's about all he needs to do.

Jason Perry: Okay, I want to talk about one thing that just happened recently.

You all have covered it to some extent with your reporting and also on your show, Rod, the impact of redistricting in the state of Utah.

But it's an interesting point-- and I'm just curious what you have to say about this--because we asked Utahns-- Keep in mind this is proposition 4, 2018, interestingly it was the most narrow passage of any of those propositions that were on the ballot.

It was 53.4% of Utahns said yes.

Do you think Utah should have an independent redistricting commission, 50-plus percent said yes, but what's interesting about this is we started asking Utahns after the fact, what did you think about--use Salt Lake City, for example--being carved into four congressional districts.

And this was so interesting to me, because you see to some extent Utahns cared about it then certainly enough to pass, but when we asked about Salt Lake City, Ben, being carved into four congressional districts said Utahns--was that appropriate?

Forty-three percent of Utahns said I don't know.

What do you make of that?

I mean, this is so interesting, because we're talkin' about it all the time.

I mean, isn't one of those things where it's such a big deal for all of us, but it's not really something that's so big on our radar really?

Ben Winslow: I think it's one of those until people--if it directly impacts them either through policy decisions or something that their elected representative does that they like or they don't like, that's when you see it.

Redistricting is really important, because you do set who represents you for so many different things, but it is tough to communicate that to people in their everyday lives why it is a big deal, why it matters who represents you, do you feel represented?

Because a lot of people tend to just go, oh yeah, that person represents me, I like them, they're cool.

Or I hate that person.

You know, it just--it's hard to communicate how it affects you until they get in office and they start passing policies versus what the boundaries are and what they should be.

Rod Arquette: Jason, I get zero response on redistricting whenever I open it up on my talk show.

Let's talk about redistricting, zero response.

People just--like Ben said, it's something that they just-- I don't--I think they understand but they don't want to be bothered by it.

You know, you elect this guy, you elect this individual, this woman, that's all they really care about.

What district they're in, I don't know if it really matters to people.

It is important, it's very important, but it's tough to sell the public to get 'em interested.

Sonja Hutson: And when you had that proposition back in 2018, that was more an abstract concept, and it's easier to get people I think engaged in that, like, do you want independent oversight of this, or do you not?

Rather than, oh, how is my city cut up in this, you know, online software that I'm seeing, it's-- When you get down to the nitty-gritty of drawing lines, I think it's a lot harder to engage.

Ben Winslow: And also, at that time had passed, pot was on the poll.

Rod Arquette: True, and there are--some lawmakers that I've spoken to feel they were set up by this, and they're very angry, 'cause constitutionally the ultimate decision does rest with lawmakers, and they feel they were set up by the better boundaries people.

They're a little angry at it.

Jason Perry: Rod, let's get to that for a second, 'cause we asked one follow-up question to Utah voters, and it was this, is do you think the legislature should have voted on some of the maps, at least one of the maps that was submitted by the independent redistricting commission?

So I'm curious what y'all think about this, 'cause I, you know, it seems like there was a little bit of confusion.

What is the role of the independent redistricting commission?

To Rod's point, is the constitutional responsibility just with the legislature?

Sonja, how does that play out when 37% of Utahns--and that was a pretty big number, too-- said they don't know and 55% said yes, they should have voted on one of the maps.

Sonja Hutson: I mean, so going back to the proposition that passed in 2018 that set up this commission, from the very beginning of the redistricting process, lawmakers were pointing out by, like, the really narrow margin that had passed by and kind of using that as saying like, oh yeah, like the voters wanted this, they technically passed it, but it wasn't like overwhelming support, so to me it was very clear from the beginning that they probably were not going to vote on these maps.

Ben Winslow: But there was also a difference between what voters approved and what they compromised with the legislature on.

The commission became--the independent redistricting commission became more of an advisory capacity, which did add--and there was this kind of this hope that there would be that bully pulpit, that pressure for them to adopt a map, and it was a little surprising that they didn't take one, you know, just as a pity map almost, but they didn't.

And they--but the legislature stuck to its guns of this is our authority to do it, it rests with us.

Sonja Hutson: Well, and they stuck to their guns even more saying at the end of the process after there was the whole drama with Rob Bishop walking off the commission that, hey, we're probably going to make some changes to this process down the line, and Governor Cox and his press conference yesterday seemed to at least not be opposed to that idea.

Jason Perry: Rod, just one more thing on this, 'cause there was the sticking to the guns idea that both of you have mentioned right there I think is so interesting.

When you say should the legislature have have voted on one of those maps, should Salt Lake City have been carved up, but this huge percentage of don't know, 43% don't know if it should be carved up, 37% don't know if they should even vote on a map, maybe their sticking to their guns may have been just a strategy that's gonna work fine for them.

There's not really gonna be a ramification for that.

Rod Arquette: It worked fine for them.

The public doesn't get engaged in this.

I mean, and they go back to the constitutional authority.

It is really the ultimate decision of the legislature, and we're going to do that.

Should they have voted on the maps?

You know, the legislature I don't think it was going to let that happen to begin with.

It was--as Ben and Sonja both pointed out, they view this, this commission that was set up as an advisory commission.

Hey, consider this, consider this, consider this, but eventually they have the authority.

Ben Winslow: But I don't think it's over yet.

I do thing that Better Boundaries is raising money.

They've raised quite a bit of money, and they are going to target candidates, so the next election cycle could be interesting for certain people.

Jason Perry: Even though it's just every 10 years, it's worth talking about now, right?

I want to talk about the legislative session for just a moment.

We have a couple of minutes left.

Sonja, I'm interested in a couple of things, particularly issues with clean air.

The environment seems to be a topic all the legislature's talkin' about.

Give us some idea, some preview about what they're discussing they might want to do.

Sonja Hutson: Yeah, so there's gonna be this really big legislative bill from Senator Kirk Cullimore.

He had a big, you know, flashy press conference a month or two ago about it.

And I don't know--he kind of knows, okay, some of this is gonna get changed, you know, there's a--what's it called?

Ben Winslow: The incentives for cars?

Sonja Hutson: Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Ben Winslow: Buy a clean car.

Sonja Hutson: Buy a clean car.

Jason Perry: Cash for clunkers kind of idea.

Sonja Hutson: Yeah, yeah, yeah, cap and trade also, cap and trade is going to be really controversial.

I'm excited to see what happens with that.

So lot of big proposals on there.

I think it'll be the subject of a lot of negotiations between him and leadership.

Ben Winslow: The air quality bill is going to be big.

I think you're gonna see a lot of water quality legislation, water conservation legislation.

The Great Salt Lake has really freaked out a lot of people on Capitol Hill.

It dropping that low, the fact that, look, nobody wants to breathe toxic dust along the Wasatch Front, that sounds kind of bad.

So you're gonna see a lot done with water conservation, this idea of incentivizing people to ditch lawns, secondary water metering expansions--which was fought for a long time, and now everybody's embracing it.

You know, just a whole package of legislation gamed around water conservation.

I think this is gonna be a huge year for that.

Rod Arquette: And I think with Speaker Wilson kind of leading the charge on the Great Salt Lake-- Ben Winslow: Well, his district is the Great Salt Lake.

It's his largest constituent by geographic size.

Rod Arquette: You're going to get some--and that is such an important asset for the state of Utah, the snow we get, a lot of it depends on what the lake is doing, so that's gonna be a very, very critical issue I think.

And they also have money, and we've got a surplus again, and you'll get the debate over, you know, you even have the Utah Taxpayers Association the other day coming out against eliminating the sales tax on food, which was a bit surprising, I think, to many people.

But I think you're gonna have a debate over where this money goes because we have a lot of it.

Ben Winslow: The interesting debate will also be between the legislature's proposal for any income tax cut versus the governor's proposal for the food tax credit, then you have the factor of eliminating the sales tax on food, where everybody lands, and if this brings us Tax Reform 2.0.

Jason Perry: Yes.

Rod Arquette: And there's more push now for the state of Utah-- other states are doing this-- eliminating the income tax completely, and will Utah ever go there?

Other states are starting to go in that direction.

Jason Perry: Uh-huh, what are you hearing from our legislation?

I mean, do you think--do you predict, Rod, there'll be some form of tax cuts coming from our legislature?

They're sitting on a billion and a half dollars.

Rod Arquette: There'll be something.

I'm not sure what direction they're going to go, but I think they'll, you know, I think there will be something.

They're talking about--I think the pressure--the public's out there saying, wait, you got all this money and you aren't reducing our taxes, what gives?

Sonja Hutson: And they really try to do that every session if they can.

Yeah, it's true, where do you see this going on, the tax credit for food versus sales tax on food?

Sonja Hutson: Oh, man, your guess is as good as mine.

There's so many options out there.

I think we'll just have to wait and see.

Jason Perry: It's gonna be very interesting next legislative session.

Many bill files already open, we're watching it very closely, we'll keep talking about it here on "The Hinckley Report."

Just so glad to have you all with us and your great insights here this evening, thank you.

And thank you for watching "The Hinckley Report."

This show is also available as a podcast on PBSUtah.org/HinckleyReport or wherever you get your podcasts.

Thank you for being with us, we'll see you next week.

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